DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HunterZloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 30 games
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 28 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 27 games
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 24 games
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 22 games
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
HunterZ
Snapfire
Mjz · 12 games
Hoodwink
Mjz · 11 games
Earthshakersignature
Vitaly · 10 games
Jakiro
Prada · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 6 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 6 games
Marcisignature
Lumière · 6 games
Slardaroften banned
Vitaly · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
600 picks · 300 bans
Disruptor
527 picks · 526 bans
Puck
392 picks · 1084 bans
Hoodwink
357 picks · 187 bans
Mars
350 picks · 590 bans
Pugna
347 picks · 391 bans
Warlock
344 picks · 156 bans
Tusk
336 picks · 260 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:11
4Pirates 61%HunterZ 39%
The model gave 61% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 29:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautzvёzd
MarsVitaly
Centaur Warrunnerмистер мораль
SvenLumière
PuckNattyNarwhal
TinyMjz
Ringmasterariel
JakiroPrada
SnapfirePERDAN4IK
Game 2prediction correct20:7
4Pirates 61%HunterZ 39%
The model gave 61% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 29:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladezvёzd
PangolierVitaly
Timbersawмистер мораль
Anti-MageLumière
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
HoodwinkMjz
SnapfirePERDAN4IK
JakiroPrada
Ringmasterariel
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 71%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2