EPL Masters I · BO5
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 3:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Level UPloss 0:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Kezoften banned
Niku · 21 game
Hoodwink
Daze · 20 games
Underlordsignature
pma · 18 games
Warlock
Riddys · 17 games
Rubick
Daze · 16 games
Shadow Demon
Daze · 16 games
Axesignature
pma · 15 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 13 games
Level UP
Windranger
queezy · 21 game
Techiessignature
Htrd · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 18 games
Hoodwinksignature
queezy · 16 games
Void Spirit
Ainkrad · 16 games
Undyingsignature
Htrd · 13 games
Witch Doctorsignature
Htrd · 13 games
Tidehuntersignature
Bb3px · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
501 picks · 348 bans
Clockwerk
353 picks · 634 bans
Bane
350 picks · 399 bans
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 455 bans
Rubick
324 picks · 176 bans
Tiny
311 picks · 341 bans
Shadow Fiend
302 picks · 576 bans
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 329 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Level UP
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Natus Vincere 72%Level UP 28%
The model gave 72% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere.
Game 2prediction correct34:16
Natus Vincere 62%Level UP 38%
The model gave 62% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 31:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladegotthejuice
Lone DruidWoE
InvokerNiku
Queen of PainAinkrad
Axepma
TidehunterBb3px
MiranaRiddys
UndyingHtrd
HoodwinkDaze
Lionqueezy
Game 3prediction correct29:12
Natus Vincere 65%Level UP 35%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 25:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kezgotthejuice
PangolierAinkrad
LinaNiku
ClinkzWoE
Slardarpma
Wraith KingBb3px
MiranaRiddys
Hoodwinkqueezy
TuskDaze
UndyingHtrd
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 72%
Series resultNatus Vincere 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3