BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 1:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 22 games
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 19 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 16 games
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 16 games
Svensignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
Bristlebacksignature
pma · 14 games
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 32 games
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 20 games
Puckoften banned
Emo · 19 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
Silencersignature
Oli · 18 games
Dark Seersignature
zeal · 16 games
Medusaoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
600 picks · 300 bans
Disruptor
524 picks · 526 bans
Puck
393 picks · 1081 bans
Hoodwink
356 picks · 187 bans
Mars
349 picks · 589 bans
Pugna
347 picks · 391 bans
Warlock
346 picks · 156 bans
Tusk
336 picks · 259 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:26
Natus Vincere 60%Yakult Brothers 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 44:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassingotthejuice
InvokerEmo
Monkey KingNiku
Ursaflyfly
Batriderpma
Marszeal
PudgeZayac
ChenBoBoKa
DisruptorRiddys
JakiroPoloson
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 70%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1