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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Liquidloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 29 games
62%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
77%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 20 games
65%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 19 games
74%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
71%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 16 games
69%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skiter · 16 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Cr1t- · 16 games
44%

Team Liquid

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 23 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 23 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 21 game
38%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 20 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 18 games
39%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
600 picks · 299 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
522 picks · 526 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
392 picks · 1079 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
355 picks · 185 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 587 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
346 picks · 391 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
345 picks · 156 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
336 picks · 259 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 46%
Hero pool strength58% Team Falcons
Head-to-head8 – 2
Model total71% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:18
Team Falcons 61%Team Liquid 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 42:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
51% · 254 games54% · 179 games
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
Nature's Prophet
Sven
SvenSkiter
51% · 196 games51% · 275 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
43% · 220 games49% · 220 games
DawnbreakerAce
Dawnbreaker
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
50% · 245 games50% · 242 games
PugnatOfu
Pugna
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
47% · 277 games55% · 276 games
BatriderBoxi
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 71%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1