DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kalmychataloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Passion UA
Tinysignature
QBFY · 34 games
Snapfire
QBFY · 23 games
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 22 games
Leshrac
Moonlight · 22 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 21 game
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 19 games
Silencersignature
kreker · 19 games
Kalmychata
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
594 picks · 296 bans
Disruptor
518 picks · 522 bans
Puck
389 picks · 1070 bans
Hoodwink
352 picks · 183 bans
Pugna
344 picks · 391 bans
Mars
343 picks · 586 bans
Warlock
343 picks · 156 bans
Tusk
334 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total62% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:11
Passion UA 38%Kalmychata 62%
The model gave 62% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Passion UA in 38:31.
Game 2prediction missed29:12
Passion UA 38%Kalmychata 62%
The model gave 62% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Passion UA in 29:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 62%
Series resultPassion UA 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2