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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Aureuswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 33 games
48%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 33 games
45%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 32 games
66%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 26 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 26 games
69%
Puck
Puckoften banned
kiyotaka · 23 games
57%

Team Aureus

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 16 games
69%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 15 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 13 games
69%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Tims · 12 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Force · 11 games
73%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Force · 9 games
78%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Force · 9 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
592 picks · 296 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
518 picks · 522 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
388 picks · 1070 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
350 picks · 183 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
344 picks · 391 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
343 picks · 584 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
343 picks · 156 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
333 picks · 252 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 71%
Hero pool strength53% Team Aureus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:23
Aurora Gaming 57%Team Aureus 43%
The model gave 57% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 38:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordNightfall
44% · 88 games47% · 104 games
Naga SirenNatsumi
Naga Siren
Puck
PuckMikoto
49% · 377 games51% · 301 game
Dragon KnightYopaj
Dragon Knight
Lycan
LycanTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 128 games53% · 83 games
Night StalkerForce
Night Stalker
Chen
ChenOli
62% · 159 games50% · 290 games
SnapfireSkem
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
46% · 320 games50% · 294 games
TuskTims
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 64%
Series resultTeam Aureus 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1