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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 1:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Execrationloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 34 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 30 games
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 28 games
64%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 23 games
78%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 23 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 17 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 17 games
71%

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 26 games
65%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marssignature
Tino- · 16 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 15 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 13 games
77%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 13 games
62%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 13 games
54%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Shanks · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
592 picks · 295 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
517 picks · 522 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
388 picks · 1069 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
349 picks · 183 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
344 picks · 390 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
343 picks · 584 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
343 picks · 156 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
333 picks · 251 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:22
MOUZ 61%Execration 39%
The model gave 61% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 29:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautCrystallis
43% · 27 games48% · 142 games
AbaddonPalos
Abaddon
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMidOne
55% · 173 games42% · 107 games
AxeTino-
Axe
Undying
UndyingBOOM
52% · 108 games54% · 117 games
LeshracBob
Leshrac
Disruptor
DisruptorSeleri
55% · 158 games47% · 146 games
HoodwinkShanks
Hoodwink
Pudge
Pudgeyamich
49% · 49 games57% · 3 games
Treant Protectorcml
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 68%
Series resultMOUZ 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1