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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 1:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
94%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Miposhka · 15 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 15 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 14 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 13 games
77%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Miposhka · 12 games
58%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 22 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 19 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
pma · 18 games
61%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
59%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 16 games
75%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Riddys · 15 games
60%
Sven
Svensignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
pma · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
592 picks · 295 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
516 picks · 522 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 1069 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
348 picks · 183 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
344 picks · 390 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
343 picks · 156 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 584 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
333 picks · 250 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 68%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total63% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:12
Team Spirit 53%Natus Vincere 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 45:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
45% · 222 games62% · 44 games
Juggernautgotthejuice
Juggernaut
Puck
PuckLarl
52% · 265 games47% · 386 games
PangolierNiku
Pangolier
Mars
MarsCollapse
51% · 181 game43% · 94 games
Underlordpma
Underlord
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
52% · 167 games49% · 389 games
BatriderZayac
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorPanto
46% · 202 games57% · 124 games
DazzleRiddys
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 63%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1