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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Heroicloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 23 games
65%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 21 game
57%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Saksa · 20 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 20 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 18 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 17 games
53%
Axe
Axeoften banned
33 · 17 games
59%

Heroic

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 19 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 18 games
83%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
44%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 17 games
65%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
31%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 15 games
73%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4nalog · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
592 picks · 294 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
516 picks · 522 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 1068 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
348 picks · 182 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
344 picks · 390 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
343 picks · 156 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 584 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
333 picks · 248 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Heroic
Head-to-head6 – 2
Model total67% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:28
Tundra Esports 59%Heroic 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerbzm
50% · 201 game43% · 108 games
Queen of PainYuma
Queen of Pain
Kez
KezPure~
little data55% · 100 games
DoomDavai
Doom
Axe
Axe33
44% · 80 games55% · 86 games
EarthshakerWisper
Earthshaker
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterAri
47% · 134 games50% · 89 games
EnchantressKJ
Enchantress
Bane
BaneWhitemon
56% · 109 games51% · 141 game
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 67%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1