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Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2 · BO2
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 43 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 37 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 33 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
RESPECT · 29 games
52%
Rubick
Rubick
sayuw · 26 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
sayuw · 25 games
68%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Corrupted · 25 games
48%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Corrupted · 25 games
44%

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 34 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 30 games
77%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 27 games
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 25 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Davai · 24 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 23 games
65%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
608 picks · 435 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
557 picks · 325 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
415 picks · 589 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
404 picks · 366 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
390 picks · 440 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 482 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
325 picks · 372 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
312 picks · 219 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total61% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:21
HULIGANI 45%Nigma Galaxy 55%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 36:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendssnovv1
54% · 196 games54% · 115 games
HuskarLorenof
Huskar
Underlord
UnderlordCorrupted
44% · 198 games50% · 195 games
DoomDavai
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
52% · 303 games53% · 86 games
AlchemistSumaiL
Alchemist
Clockwerk
ClockwerkZayac
44% · 209 games53% · 171 game
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Ringmaster
RingmasterRESPECT
44% · 218 games52% · 557 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct8:37
HULIGANI 44%Nigma Galaxy 56%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 36:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautssnovv1
44% · 49 games47% · 98 games
LycanDavai
Lycan
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
52% · 153 games55% · 221 game
WindrangerSumaiL
Windranger
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
54% · 267 games46% · 40 games
Earth SpiritLorenof
Earth Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkZayac
46% · 159 games48% · 140 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeRESPECT
45% · 52 games55% · 181 game
RingmasterOmaR
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 61%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2