BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs predictionTATeam Aureuswin 1:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Execrationloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aureus
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 16 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 15 games
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 13 games
Disruptorsignature
Tims · 12 games
Bristlebacksignature
Force · 11 games
Abaddonsignature
Force · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Force · 9 games
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 9 games
Execration
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 25 games
Witch Doctor
cml · 17 games
Marssignature
Tino- · 16 games
Tusksignature
Shanks · 15 games
Pucksignature
Bob · 13 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 13 games
Bounty Huntersignature
Shanks · 12 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
583 picks · 292 bans
Disruptor
514 picks · 519 bans
Puck
384 picks · 1061 bans
Hoodwink
344 picks · 178 bans
Pugna
343 picks · 389 bans
Warlock
341 picks · 156 bans
Mars
338 picks · 581 bans
Tusk
330 picks · 245 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 65%
Hero pool strength51% Team Aureus
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total56% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:12
Team Aureus 46%Execration 54%
The model gave 54% on Execration — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 27:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death ProphetYopaj
GyrocopterPalos
UrsaNatsumi
DawnbreakerTino-
BatriderForce
Storm SpiritBob
ChenSkem
SnapfireShanks
MarciTims
Undyingcml
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 56%
Series resultTeam Aureus 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1