?
arrow_backBack to match
BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:0
MOUZloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 28 games
64%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
77%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 20 games
65%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 19 games
74%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
71%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Cr1t- · 16 games
44%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Sneyking · 16 games
63%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 15 games
73%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 34 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 29 games
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 28 games
64%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 23 games
57%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 22 games
82%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 17 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
582 picks · 292 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
514 picks · 519 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 1061 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
343 picks · 178 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
343 picks · 389 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
341 picks · 156 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 580 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
330 picks · 244 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:10
Team Falcons 66%MOUZ 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 30:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezSatanic
43% · 3 games60% · 31 game
JuggernautCrystallis
Juggernaut
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMalr1ne
51% · 238 games51% · 151 game
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
Centaur Warrunner
Slardar
SlardarATF
44% · 95 games52% · 185 games
BatriderMidOne
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
47% · 286 games54% · 206 games
Monkey Kingyamich
Monkey King
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
44% · 214 games53% · 263 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 82%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1