BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Dark Seersignature
33 · 23 games
Tusksignature
Saksa · 23 games
Tiny
Saksa · 21 game
Pugnaoften banned
Saksa · 20 games
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 20 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 18 games
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 17 games
Axeoften banned
33 · 17 games
Natus Vincere
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 22 games
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 19 games
Pangoliersignature
pma · 18 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 16 games
Bristlebacksignature
pma · 14 games
Dazzlesignature
Riddys · 14 games
Svensignature
gotthejuice · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
582 picks · 292 bans
Disruptor
514 picks · 519 bans
Puck
383 picks · 1061 bans
Hoodwink
343 picks · 177 bans
Pugna
343 picks · 389 bans
Warlock
341 picks · 156 bans
Mars
338 picks · 580 bans
Tusk
330 picks · 244 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 71%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total61% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:25
Tundra Esports 53%Natus Vincere 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan33
Svengotthejuice
UrsaPure~
Monkey KingNiku
Puckbzm
Batriderpma
Dark WillowAri
PudgeZayac
JakiroWhitemon
DazzleRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 61%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1