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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 1:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
94%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Miposhka · 15 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 15 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 14 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 13 games
77%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Miposhka · 12 games
58%

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 33 games
48%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 33 games
45%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 32 games
66%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 26 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 24 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
kiyotaka · 22 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
582 picks · 291 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
514 picks · 519 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 1061 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
343 picks · 389 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
342 picks · 177 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
340 picks · 156 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
337 picks · 580 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
329 picks · 244 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total76% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:12
Team Spirit 61%Aurora Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherYatoro
55% · 31 game50% · 138 games
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Slardar
SlardarLarl
50% · 150 games51% · 302 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Mars
MarsCollapse
48% · 221 game48% · 104 games
TidehunterTORONTOTOKYO
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPanto
48% · 145 games57% · 151 game
RingmasterMira
Ringmaster
Tusk
Tuskrue
49% · 378 games47% · 230 games
WarlockOli
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 76%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1