?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 36 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 29 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 27 games
41%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 25 games
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 23 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 23 games
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
575 picks · 289 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
509 picks · 514 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
381 picks · 1051 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
341 picks · 388 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
338 picks · 174 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
338 picks · 156 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
335 picks · 573 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
325 picks · 241 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Kalmychata
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total67% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:33
Kalmychata 67%Zero Tenacity 33%
The model gave 67% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 30:02.
Game 2prediction missed42:23
Kalmychata 67%Zero Tenacity 33%
The model gave 67% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 39:09.
Game 3prediction missed11:27
Kalmychata 67%Zero Tenacity 33%
The model gave 67% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 31:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 67%
Series resultKalmychata 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3