DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Peru Rejectswin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Peru Rejects
Snapfiresignature
Michael · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 6 games
Earthshakeroften banned
DarkMago · 6 games
Marcisignature
Elmisho · 6 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 6 games
Bristleback
payk · 5 games
Disruptoroften banned
Elmisho · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 5 games
OG
Jakiro
Kidaro · 25 games
Tiny
Stormstormer · 22 games
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 21 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 21 game
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 20 games
Pugnaoften banned
Lelis · 19 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Stormstormer · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
575 picks · 289 bans
Disruptor
509 picks · 514 bans
Puck
381 picks · 1051 bans
Pugna
341 picks · 388 bans
Hoodwink
338 picks · 174 bans
Warlock
338 picks · 156 bans
Mars
335 picks · 573 bans
Tusk
325 picks · 241 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Peru Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Peru Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:25
Peru Rejects 59%OG 41%
The model gave 59% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 50:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddonpayk
TerrorbladeShad
Ember SpiritDarkMago
MarciMikSa`
SlardarILICH-
InvokerStojkov
HoodwinkMatthew
SnapfireDaze
EnchantressMichael
Lichn0tail
Game 2prediction correct36:16
Peru Rejects 59%OG 41%
The model gave 59% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 30:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawILICH-
Nature's ProphetStojkov
Queen of PainDarkMago
BeastmasterMikSa`
Bristlebackpayk
JuggernautShad
Shadow ShamanMatthew
Venomancern0tail
WarlockMichael
TuskDaze
Model check result
Model favoritePeru Rejects · 66%
Series resultPeru Rejects 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2