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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 27 games
63%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 21 game
76%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 20 games
65%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 19 games
74%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skiter · 15 games
53%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Cr1t- · 15 games
40%
Sven
Svensignature
Skiter · 15 games
67%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 32 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 18 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 18 games
56%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 18 games
61%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
zeal · 16 games
69%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
570 picks · 286 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
507 picks · 512 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
379 picks · 1045 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
340 picks · 387 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
337 picks · 170 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
334 picks · 566 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
334 picks · 156 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
321 picks · 237 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total88% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:8
Team Falcons 74%Yakult Brothers 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 25:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautSatanic
65% · 21 game46% · 128 games
Tidehunterzeal
Tidehunter
Huskar
HuskarMalr1ne
59% · 27 games44% · 133 games
Queen of PainEmo
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
PangolierATF
51% · 247 games41% · 43 games
Weaverflyfly
Weaver
Ringmaster
RingmasterCr1t-
51% · 87 games40% · 131 game
DisruptorPoloson
Disruptor
Chen
ChenSneyking
63% · 104 games49% · 51 game
AlchemistBoBoKa
Alchemist
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 88%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1