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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tealoss 0:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tea

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 11 games
91%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 8 games
88%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 7 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
dEsire · 7 games
14%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 6 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shigetsu · 6 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Cloud · 6 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Worick · 6 games
67%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 20 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 17 games
76%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 14 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 12 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 11 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 11 games
55%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
566 picks · 286 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
506 picks · 509 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
378 picks · 1040 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
338 picks · 387 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
335 picks · 167 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
333 picks · 154 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
332 picks · 562 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
317 picks · 237 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Team Tea
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:29
Team Tea 58%Pipsqueak+4 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 33:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageShigetsu
57% · 47 games49% · 166 games
MorphlingNande
Morphling
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainWorick
42% · 193 games55% · 179 games
Nature's Prophetxn丶e
Nature's Prophet
Marci
MarciCloud
49% · 200 games44% · 123 games
UndyingPalantimos
Undying
Earthshaker
EarthshakerdEsire
50% · 198 games61% · 117 games
ChenKidaro
Chen
Pugna
PugnaSoNNeikO
52% · 242 games46% · 295 games
TuskEkki
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed22:39
Team Tea 56%Pipsqueak+4 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 29:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsCloud
50% · 171 game53% · 88 games
Faceless VoidNande
Faceless Void
Marci
MarciShigetsu
47% · 151 game52% · 147 games
Leshracxn丶e
Leshrac
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainWorick
49% · 132 games52% · 73 games
Night StalkerPalantimos
Night Stalker
Pugna
PugnaSoNNeikO
48% · 153 games52% · 123 games
DazzleKidaro
Dazzle
Snapfire
SnapfiredEsire
52% · 173 games47% · 349 games
TuskEkki
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 65%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2