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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kalmychataloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 30 games
67%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 25 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 23 games
74%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 22 games
73%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 21 game
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
68%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
kasane · 18 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 17 games
59%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
564 picks · 286 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
505 picks · 507 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
377 picks · 1038 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
336 picks · 388 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
334 picks · 165 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
331 picks · 559 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
331 picks · 153 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
317 picks · 237 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total57% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:25
1w Team 57%Kalmychata 43%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 51:05.
Game 2prediction missed21:28
1w Team 57%Kalmychata 43%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 38:56.
Game 3prediction correct29:21
1w Team 57%Kalmychata 43%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 40:19.
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 57%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3