DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs predictionTBthe bugloss 0:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Peru Rejectswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
the bug
Sven
Boris · 4 games
Warlock
empyrean5 · 4 games
Dragon Knight
iAnnihilate · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Boris · 3 games
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 3 games
Pugnaoften banned
empyrean5 · 3 games
Snapfire
Newsham · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Boris · 3 games
Peru Rejects
Snapfiresignature
Michael · 10 games
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 6 games
Earthshakeroften banned
DarkMago · 6 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 6 games
Bristleback
payk · 5 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Parker · 5 games
Marcioften banned
Elmisho · 5 games
Shadow Shaman
Elmisho · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
564 picks · 286 bans
Disruptor
505 picks · 507 bans
Puck
377 picks · 1038 bans
Pugna
336 picks · 388 bans
Hoodwink
334 picks · 165 bans
Mars
331 picks · 559 bans
Warlock
331 picks · 153 bans
Tusk
317 picks · 237 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 62%
Hero pool strength57% Peru Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Peru Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
the bug 16%Peru Rejects 84%
The model gave 84% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects.
Game 2prediction correct15:33
the bug 29%Peru Rejects 71%
The model gave 71% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 27:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaBoris
BeastmasterILICH-
Queen of PainiAnnihilate
MarciParker
EarthshakerITALIANO GANGSTA
Ember SpiritDarkMago
TuskNewsham
SnapfireMatthew
Pugnaempyrean5
DisruptorMichael
Model check result
Model favoritePeru Rejects · 84%
Series resultPeru Rejects 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2