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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
eSpoiledloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 13 games
38%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TA2000 · 11 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
prblms · 8 games
25%
Doom
Doomsignature
TA2000 · 8 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Chira JUNIOR · 8 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Noticed · 8 games
50%
Bane
Bane
prblms · 7 games
29%

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Wein · 30 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 24 games
54%
Medusa
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 23 games
61%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 20 games
40%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 19 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 18 games
78%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 18 games
56%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
560 picks · 283 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
502 picks · 507 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
378 picks · 1033 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
336 picks · 386 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
329 picks · 162 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
329 picks · 552 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
328 picks · 151 bans
54%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
314 picks · 506 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 48%
Hero pool strength55% eSpoiled
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:28
Team Yandex 64%eSpoiled 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 41:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetWatson
54% · 221 game47% · 134 games
Svenssnovv1
Sven
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
55% · 183 games48% · 321 game
Storm SpiritDifference
Storm Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingChira JUNIOR
52% · 186 games48% · 155 games
Enchantressasdekor_r
Enchantress
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkprblms
46% · 236 games45% · 327 games
Tuskmrls
Tusk
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMalady
57% · 111 games
Game 2prediction correct24:47
Team Yandex 63%eSpoiled 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 59:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetWatson
54% · 175 games51% · 218 games
Abaddonssnovv1
Abaddon
Mars
MarsNoticed
51% · 203 games45% · 218 games
Queen of PainDifference
Queen of Pain
Invoker
InvokerChira JUNIOR
53% · 126 games49% · 212 games
Snapfireasdekor_r
Snapfire
Batrider
Batriderprblms
49% · 297 games53% · 240 games
Hoodwinkmrls
Hoodwink
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMalady
47% · 87 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 72%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2