CCT Season 2 Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Teawin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Inner Circleloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tea
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 9 games
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 7 games
Snapfire
dEsire · 7 games
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 6 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Worick · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
SoNNeikO · 5 games
Marcioften banned
Shigetsu · 5 games
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 11 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 10 games
Tusk
Fernans · 9 games
Warlock
flacko · 9 games
Disruptorsignature
flacko · 8 games
Sven
yowaai · 7 games
Jakiro
flacko · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
559 picks · 283 bans
Disruptor
502 picks · 507 bans
Puck
377 picks · 1032 bans
Pugna
336 picks · 386 bans
Hoodwink
328 picks · 161 bans
Mars
328 picks · 551 bans
Warlock
328 picks · 150 bans
Tusk
313 picks · 236 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 36%
Hero pool strength60% Team Tea
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:2
Team Tea 59%Inner Circle 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 22:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonShigetsu
Templar Assassinyowaai
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
Ember SpiritPanda
Queen of PainWorick
MarsNorma
EarthshakerdEsire
Chenflacko
DazzleSoNNeikO
TuskFernans
Game 2prediction correct45:21
Team Tea 61%Inner Circle 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 48:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonShigetsu
Doomyowaai
TimbersawCloud
EarthshakerPanda
PuckWorick
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
ChenSoNNeikO
Enchantressflacko
HoodwinkdEsire
SnapfireFernans
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 65%
Series resultTeam Tea 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2