DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Peru Rejectswin 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Peru Rejects
Snapfiresignature
Michael · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 6 games
Earthshakeroften banned
DarkMago · 6 games
Bristleback
payk · 5 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Parker · 5 games
Marcioften banned
Elmisho · 5 games
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 5 games
Clockwerk
Elmisho · 4 games
Zero Tenacity
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 36 games
Dark Willow
yamich · 29 games
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 25 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 24 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 23 games
Rubick
Pablo · 23 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
552 picks · 281 bans
Disruptor
498 picks · 505 bans
Puck
373 picks · 1029 bans
Pugna
336 picks · 384 bans
Hoodwink
327 picks · 159 bans
Mars
327 picks · 542 bans
Warlock
326 picks · 150 bans
Tusk
311 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 51%
Hero pool strength50% Peru Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Peru Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:4
Peru Rejects 56%Zero Tenacity 44%
The model gave 56% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 23:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinParker
BristlebackNefrit
LycanILICH-
PuckMirage
MarsDarkMago
Troll WarlordKami
SnapfireMichael
Shadow DemonJeezy
DisruptorMatthew
ClockwerkSe
Game 2prediction missed5:18
Peru Rejects 58%Zero Tenacity 42%
The model gave 58% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 24:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidILICH-
MorphlingKami
Centaur WarrunnerParker
DawnbreakerNefrit
TimbersawDarkMago
Void SpiritMirage
Shadow DemonMatthew
ChenSe
SnapfireMichael
DisruptorJeezy
Game 3prediction correct48:15
Peru Rejects 59%Zero Tenacity 41%
The model gave 59% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 29:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendParker
TerrorbladeKami
SlardarDarkMago
UnderlordNefrit
PudgeILICH-
EarthshakerMirage
TuskMichael
JakiroJeezy
Shadow ShamanMatthew
DisruptorSe
Model check result
Model favoritePeru Rejects · 63%
Series resultPeru Rejects 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3