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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
the bugloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%

the bug

Sven
Sven
Boris · 4 games
75%
Warlock
Warlock
empyrean5 · 4 games
25%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Boris · 3 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Boris · 3 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
empyrean5 · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
iAnnihilate · 2 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 2 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
empyrean5 · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
552 picks · 281 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
498 picks · 505 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
373 picks · 1029 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
336 picks · 384 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
327 picks · 159 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
327 picks · 542 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
326 picks · 150 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
311 picks · 233 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:36
Kalmychata 84%the bug 16%
The model gave 84% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by the bug in 32:17.
Game 2prediction missed28:14
Kalmychata 84%the bug 16%
The model gave 84% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by the bug in 27:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 84%
Series resultKalmychata 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2