CCT Season 2 Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Teawin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tea
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 7 games
Snapfire
dEsire · 7 games
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 6 games
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 5 games
Slardaroften banned
Cloud · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 5 games
Chenoften banned
SoNNeikO · 4 games
4Pirates
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 30 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 28 games
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 27 games
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 24 games
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 23 games
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
551 picks · 281 bans
Disruptor
497 picks · 505 bans
Puck
373 picks · 1027 bans
Pugna
336 picks · 384 bans
Mars
326 picks · 541 bans
Hoodwink
325 picks · 159 bans
Warlock
325 picks · 150 bans
Tusk
311 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:10
Team Tea 56%4Pirates 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 29:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciShigetsu
Gyrocopterzvёzd
PangolierCloud
Dragon KnightNattyNarwhal
Storm SpiritWorick
Slardarмистер мораль
WarlockSoNNeikO
Snapfireariel
HoodwinkdEsire
OraclePERDAN4IK
Game 2prediction correct42:17
Team Tea 57%4Pirates 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 48:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonShigetsu
Terrorbladezvёzd
Sand KingWorick
TinkerNattyNarwhal
MarsCloud
Centaur Warrunnerмистер мораль
EnchantressSoNNeikO
DisruptorPERDAN4IK
HoodwinkdEsire
Bounty Hunterariel
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 62%
Series resultTeam Tea 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2