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CCT Season 2 Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
eSpoiledloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 48 games
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 44 games
73%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 41 game
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
70%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 36 games
69%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 34 games
44%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Wein · 30 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 24 games
54%
Medusa
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 23 games
61%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 20 games
40%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 19 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 18 games
78%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 17 games
47%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
asdekor_r · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
549 picks · 277 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
493 picks · 502 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
373 picks · 1023 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
335 picks · 383 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
323 picks · 538 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
321 picks · 154 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
320 picks · 150 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
310 picks · 232 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Runa Team
Head-to-head7 – 1
Model total62% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:21
Runa Team 57%eSpoiled 43%
The model gave 57% on Runa Team — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 45:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopternesfeer
49% · 131 game54% · 109 games
Troll Warlordssnovv1
Troll Warlord
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAlberkaaa
53% · 119 games49% · 138 games
SlardarDifference
Slardar
Earthshaker
Earthshakernicky`cool
51% · 123 games44% · 288 games
Hoodwinkmrls
Hoodwink
Snapfire
Snapfirequeezy
57% · 236 games46% · 287 games
Jakiroasdekor_r
Jakiro
Warlock
WarlockHduo
49% · 213 games
Game 2prediction correct28:26
Runa Team 57%eSpoiled 43%
The model gave 57% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 39:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingnesfeer
46% · 204 games54% · 427 games
Gyrocopterssnovv1
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
53% · 351 game48% · 419 games
Dragon KnightDifference
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritnicky`cool
53% · 263 games59% · 189 games
Naga Sirenasdekor_r
Naga Siren
Tiny
Tinyqueezy
48% · 376 games44% · 330 games
Dark Willowmrls
Dark Willow
Disruptor
DisruptorHduo
45% · 171 game
Game 3prediction correct24:18
Runa Team 58%eSpoiled 42%
The model gave 58% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 36:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinnesfeer
55% · 203 games52% · 340 games
Abaddonssnovv1
Abaddon
Batrider
Batridernicky`cool
50% · 308 games44% · 433 games
Dragon KnightDifference
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
48% · 318 games48% · 259 games
Hoodwinkmrls
Hoodwink
Tiny
Tinyqueezy
53% · 362 games50% · 434 games
Warlockasdekor_r
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroHduo
51% · 275 games
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 62%
Series resultRuna Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3