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BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Yandexloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 20 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 19 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
pma · 18 games
61%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
59%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 16 games
75%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Riddys · 14 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
pma · 13 games
69%
Sven
Svensignature
gotthejuice · 13 games
69%

Team Yandex

Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 13 games
38%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TA2000 · 11 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
prblms · 8 games
25%
Doom
Doomsignature
TA2000 · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Noticed · 8 games
50%
Bane
Bane
prblms · 7 games
29%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Noticed · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
549 picks · 277 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
493 picks · 502 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
373 picks · 1023 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
335 picks · 383 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
323 picks · 538 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
321 picks · 154 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
320 picks · 150 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
310 picks · 232 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:8
Natus Vincere 66%Team Yandex 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursagotthejuice
48% · 172 games51% · 72 games
Troll WarlordWatson
Troll Warlord
Timbersaw
Timbersawpma
46% · 213 games54% · 282 games
BristlebackNoticed
Bristleback
Invoker
InvokerNiku
45% · 200 games52% · 144 games
LeshracChira JUNIOR
Leshrac
Warlock
WarlockRiddys
49% · 272 games49% · 309 games
Tuskprblms
Tusk
Bane
BaneZayac
53% · 130 games54% · 180 games
PugnaMalady
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct
Natus Vincere 76%Team Yandex 24%
The model gave 76% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 76%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2