CCT Season 2 Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
OxinGameloss 0:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OxinGame
No games played over 6 months.
Runa Team
Tiny
nicky`cool · 48 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 43 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 41 game
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 35 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 34 games
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
541 picks · 276 bans
Disruptor
492 picks · 499 bans
Puck
371 picks · 1016 bans
Pugna
333 picks · 381 bans
Hoodwink
318 picks · 153 bans
Warlock
318 picks · 148 bans
Mars
317 picks · 535 bans
Earthshaker
307 picks · 501 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total81% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:23
OxinGame 19%Runa Team 81%
The model gave 81% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 24:13.
Game 2prediction correct
OxinGame 19%Runa Team 81%
The model gave 81% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 81%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2