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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Peru Rejectsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%

Peru Rejects

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Michael · 7 games
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Frank · 6 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
payk · 5 games
20%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 5 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Elmisho · 4 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Parker · 4 games
75%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Parker · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
537 picks · 275 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
491 picks · 495 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
369 picks · 1014 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
333 picks · 380 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
316 picks · 148 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
315 picks · 153 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
314 picks · 532 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
305 picks · 500 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Peru Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:41
Kalmychata 46%Peru Rejects 54%
The model gave 54% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 49:16.
Game 2prediction correct50:34
Kalmychata 46%Peru Rejects 54%
The model gave 54% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 55:39.
Model check result
Model favoritePeru Rejects · 54%
Series resultKalmychata 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2