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BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 33 games
48%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 31 game
68%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 30 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 25 games
72%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 24 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
kiyotaka · 22 games
55%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 31 game
65%
Warlock
Warlock
kasane · 26 games
58%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 22 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
68%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 19 games
58%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
SSS · 16 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
kasane · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
536 picks · 275 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
490 picks · 495 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
373 picks · 1014 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
333 picks · 380 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
317 picks · 147 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
313 picks · 153 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
313 picks · 532 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
305 picks · 500 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total73% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:23
Aurora Gaming 61%1w Team 39%
The model gave 61% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 51:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNightfall
47% · 116 games48% · 228 games
Queen of PainSquad1x
Queen of Pain
Mars
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
49% · 255 games48% · 187 games
SvenMunkushi~
Sven
Pangolier
PangolierMikoto
46% · 367 games57% · 318 games
BristlebackSSS
Bristleback
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
49% · 322 games52% · 337 games
Snapfirekasane
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorOli
50% · 260 games54% · 250 games
Shadow Demonswedenstrong
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct30:6
Aurora Gaming 62%1w Team 38%
The model gave 62% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 26:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautNightfall
64% · 34 games51% · 72 games
LifestealerMunkushi~
Lifestealer
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
50% · 193 games46% · 191 game
PhoenixSSS
Phoenix
Earthshaker
EarthshakerTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 190 games50% · 231 game
Dragon KnightSquad1x
Dragon Knight
Chen
ChenOli
61% · 130 games49% · 80 games
Bounty Hunterswedenstrong
Bounty Hunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
43% · 222 games45% · 195 games
Disruptorkasane
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 73%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2