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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Roar Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 16 games
75%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 16 games
50%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 13 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 12 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 11 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 10 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 10 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Kidaro · 9 games
67%

Roar Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
CatYou · 12 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
生死 · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 8 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
CatYou · 8 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 7 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
532 picks · 272 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
486 picks · 495 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
372 picks · 1006 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
333 picks · 379 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
313 picks · 147 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
309 picks · 151 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
309 picks · 529 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
304 picks · 497 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 65%
Hero pool strength52% Roar Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Roar Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:14
Pipsqueak+4 40%Roar Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 17:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsNande
42% · 144 games47% · 225 games
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
Queen of Pain
Viper
ViperPalantimos
55% · 14 games51% · 152 games
Tidehunter生死
Tidehunter
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritxn丶e
47% · 204 games55% · 43 games
Anti-MageUlu
Anti-Mage
Batrider
BatriderEkki
53% · 219 games47% · 20 games
Spirit BreakerCatYou
Spirit Breaker
Chen
ChenKidaro
58% · 83 games49% · 224 games
DisruptorRedPanda
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed20:3
Pipsqueak+4 41%Roar Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 10:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritxn丶e
51% · 362 games46% · 239 games
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
Queen of Pain
Kez
KezNande
little data53% · 148 games
LifestealerUlu
Lifestealer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
47% · 229 games52% · 350 games
Pangolier生死
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderEkki
51% · 382 games51% · 286 games
Shadow ShamanCatYou
Shadow Shaman
Jakiro
JakiroKidaro
49% · 269 games51% · 219 games
DisruptorRedPanda
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteRoar Gaming · 67%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2