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BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Kukuyswin 2:0
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kukuys

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Gabbi · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemist
Natsumi · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Natsumi · 1 game
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Gabbi · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 1 game
100%

Vici Gaming

Ursa
Ursasignature
lou · 6 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ori · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Dy · 5 games
80%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Xm · 5 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Dy · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ori · 4 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Yang · 4 games
75%
Tiny
Tiny
Kaka · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
529 picks · 271 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
484 picks · 493 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
370 picks · 1003 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
330 picks · 378 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
311 picks · 146 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
309 picks · 524 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
306 picks · 150 bans
48%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
303 picks · 497 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 63%
Hero pool strength58% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:3
Kukuys 26%Vici Gaming 74%
The model gave 74% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 27:47.
Game 2prediction correct29:14
Kukuys 26%Vici Gaming 74%
The model gave 74% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 35:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 74%
Series resultKukuys 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2