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FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 33 games
48%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 31 game
68%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 30 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 25 games
72%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 24 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
kiyotaka · 22 games
55%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 28 games
61%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 25 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 23 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 18 games
67%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 18 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 16 games
75%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
94%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Kami · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
526 picks · 269 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
483 picks · 493 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
370 picks · 1004 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
329 picks · 378 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
310 picks · 147 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
308 picks · 521 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
304 picks · 498 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
304 picks · 148 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:34
Aurora Gaming 54%MOUZ 46%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by MOUZ in 41:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
45% · 148 games56% · 204 games
AbaddonCrystallis
Abaddon
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
48% · 262 games52% · 247 games
Shadow FiendMidOne
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
PangolierTORONTOTOKYO
45% · 379 games48% · 229 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
50% · 279 games53% · 257 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Enchantress
EnchantressOli
53% · 249 games49% · 380 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed33:26
Aurora Gaming 51%MOUZ 49%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by MOUZ in 40:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNightfall
58% · 90 games60% · 23 games
JuggernautCrystallis
Juggernaut
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
52% · 96 games44% · 238 games
BeastmasterMidOne
Beastmaster
Night Stalker
Night StalkerTORONTOTOKYO
56% · 75 games49% · 182 games
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
Centaur Warrunner
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
46% · 199 games58% · 38 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Jakiro
JakiroOli
48% · 178 games44% · 157 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 59%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2