BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Ursaoften banned
Ksh · 7 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ksh · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
Dragon Knight
Young PH · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Vici Gaming
Pangolieroften banned
Ori · 5 games
Phoenix
Dy · 5 games
Ursaoften banned
lou · 5 games
Disruptoroften banned
Dy · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Xm · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ori · 4 games
Tiny
Kaka · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
525 picks · 268 bans
Disruptor
483 picks · 490 bans
Puck
368 picks · 1004 bans
Pugna
329 picks · 378 bans
Warlock
308 picks · 147 bans
Mars
306 picks · 519 bans
Earthshaker
304 picks · 498 bans
Hoodwink
302 picks · 147 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:22
Yangon Galacticos 27%Vici Gaming 73%
The model gave 73% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 49:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageKsh
Ursalou
Dragon KnightYoung PH
PuckXm
41% · 18 games
SlardarWs
44% · 76 games
SnapfirePyw
48% · 68 games
WarlockDy
Game 2prediction correct15:25
Yangon Galacticos 28%Vici Gaming 72%
The model gave 72% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 35:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetYoung PH
Templar Assassinlou
Faceless VoidKsh
TimbersawWs
44% · 49 games
Sand KingXm
44% · 5 games
Skywrath MagePyw
46% · 46 games
ClockwerkDy
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 86%
Series resultVici Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2