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FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 16 games
81%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
31%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 16 games
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 15 games
73%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 14 games
57%
Lina
Lina
Yuma · 12 games
58%

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 32 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 31 game
68%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 30 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 27 games
59%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 25 games
72%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 24 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
kiyotaka · 22 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
523 picks · 268 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
482 picks · 487 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
367 picks · 999 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
328 picks · 377 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
305 picks · 518 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
304 picks · 147 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
303 picks · 497 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
299 picks · 147 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total54% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:16
Heroic 48%Aurora Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Heroic in 44:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainWisper
44% · 158 games61% · 37 games
Anti-MageNightfall
Anti-Mage
Timbersaw
TimbersawDavai
56% · 175 games52% · 87 games
LinaMikoto
Lina
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYuma
51% · 50 games47% · 247 games
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
Dawnbreaker
Warlock
WarlockKJ
48% · 218 games47% · 382 games
TinyMira
Tiny
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
48% · 263 games54% · 111 games
BaneOli
Bane
Game 2prediction missed35:13
Heroic 49%Aurora Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Heroic in 42:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYuma
51% · 174 games50% · 286 games
Nature's ProphetNightfall
Nature's Prophet
Leshrac
LeshracWisper
50% · 141 game55% · 107 games
Void SpiritMikoto
Void Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawDavai
47% · 162 games59% · 228 games
EarthshakerTORONTOTOKYO
Earthshaker
Tiny
TinyScofield
50% · 369 games45% · 163 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Warlock
WarlockKJ
46% · 264 games48% · 326 games
JakiroOli
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 54%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2