CCT Season 2 Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 30 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 27 games
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 23 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
Runa Team
Tiny
nicky`cool · 47 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 41 game
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 41 game
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 35 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 34 games
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
521 picks · 267 bans
Disruptor
481 picks · 485 bans
Puck
366 picks · 996 bans
Pugna
327 picks · 376 bans
Mars
304 picks · 517 bans
Earthshaker
302 picks · 495 bans
Warlock
302 picks · 147 bans
Hoodwink
299 picks · 147 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Runa Team
Head-to-head5 – 5
Model total79% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:18
4Pirates 34%Runa Team 66%
The model gave 66% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 28:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursaselfhate
Terrorbladenesfeer
Marsмистер мораль
TimbersawAlberkaaa
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
Earthshakernicky`cool
Snapfireariel
WarlockHduo
Naga SirenPERDAN4IK
Batriderqueezy
Game 2prediction correct25:30
4Pirates 32%Runa Team 68%
The model gave 68% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 29:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordselfhate
Terrorbladenesfeer
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
Timbersawnicky`cool
Night Stalkerмистер мораль
BatriderAlberkaaa
Ringmasterariel
Tinyqueezy
DisruptorPERDAN4IK
OracleHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 79%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2