?
arrow_backBack to match
BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Yandexwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 47 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 41 game
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 41 game
63%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 34 games
68%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 33 games
45%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%

Team Yandex

Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 12 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TA2000 · 10 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
prblms · 8 games
25%
Doom
Doomsignature
TA2000 · 8 games
63%
Bane
Bane
prblms · 7 games
29%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Noticed · 7 games
86%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
prblms · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
517 picks · 265 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
481 picks · 483 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
364 picks · 991 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
327 picks · 376 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
301 picks · 514 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
301 picks · 146 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
300 picks · 493 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 227 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 38%
Hero pool strength59% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:20
Runa Team 58%Team Yandex 42%
The model gave 58% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 41:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladenesfeer
45% · 251 game44% · 251 game
Queen of PainChira JUNIOR
Queen of Pain
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
50% · 269 games53% · 305 games
AbaddonWatson
Abaddon
Earthshaker
Earthshakernicky`cool
50% · 179 games48% · 193 games
Dark SeerNoticed
Dark Seer
Snapfire
Snapfirequeezy
54% · 150 games59% · 195 games
Naga SirenMalady
Naga Siren
Warlock
WarlockHduo
48% · 213 games48% · 118 games
Alchemistprblms
Alchemist
Game 2prediction missed17:22
Runa Team 54%Team Yandex 46%
The model gave 54% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 38:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangernesfeer
51% · 67 games49% · 179 games
MorphlingWatson
Morphling
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painnicky`cool
45% · 209 games51% · 189 games
EarthshakerNoticed
Earthshaker
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
47% · 214 games56% · 246 games
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
Ember Spirit
Naga Siren
Naga SirenHduo
58% · 143 games50% · 170 games
Hoodwinkprblms
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
41% · 241 game53% · 90 games
Elder TitanMalady
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction missed
Runa Team 59%Team Yandex 41%
The model gave 59% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Team Yandex.
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 59%
Series resultTeam Yandex 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3