?
arrow_backBack to match
BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kukuysloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 21 game
71%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marssignature
Tino- · 15 games
60%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 14 games
64%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Palos · 12 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 12 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 11 games
55%
Magnus
Magnus
Tino- · 11 games
55%

Kukuys

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Gabbi · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemist
Natsumi · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Natsumi · 1 game
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Gabbi · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
508 picks · 264 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
477 picks · 480 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
361 picks · 984 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
326 picks · 373 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
300 picks · 145 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
299 picks · 493 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
299 picks · 509 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
291 picks · 613 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% Execration
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total67% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:21
Execration 67%Kukuys 33%
The model gave 67% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 36:47.
Game 2prediction missed11:36
Execration 67%Kukuys 33%
The model gave 67% on Execration — the game was taken by Kukuys in 28:00.
Game 3prediction correct42:16
Execration 67%Kukuys 33%
The model gave 67% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 41:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 67%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3