BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Jakiro
Kidaro · 25 games
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 21 game
Tiny
Stormstormer · 21 game
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 20 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 18 games
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 17 games
Shadow Demon
Daze · 17 games
Nigma Galaxy
Tusksignature
GH · 34 games
Pucksignature
SumaiL · 24 games
Elder Titansignature
GH · 23 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 21 game
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
508 picks · 264 bans
Disruptor
477 picks · 480 bans
Puck
361 picks · 984 bans
Pugna
326 picks · 373 bans
Warlock
300 picks · 145 bans
Earthshaker
299 picks · 493 bans
Mars
299 picks · 509 bans
Batrider
291 picks · 613 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total80% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:44
OG 32%Nigma Galaxy 68%
The model gave 68% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 43:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordShad
Lone DruidGhost
Shadow FiendStojkov
LycanNo!ob
BristlebackMikSa`
PuckSumaiL
HoodwinkLelis
SnapfireOmaR
Nyx AssassinDaze
DisruptorTobi
Game 2prediction correct13:43
OG 35%Nigma Galaxy 65%
The model gave 65% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 33:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordShad
Nature's ProphetGhost
BeastmasterMikSa`
InvokerSumaiL
SniperStojkov
SlardarNo!ob
SilencerLelis
Naga SirenTobi
TinyDaze
HoodwinkOmaR
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 80%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2