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FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 29 games
66%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 23 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 21 game
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
68%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 17 games
53%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
kasane · 16 games
75%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
SSS · 15 games
73%

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 29 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dEsire · 25 games
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 24 games
71%
Tiny
Tiny
Worick · 22 games
36%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 19 games
42%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 19 games
37%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 17 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
507 picks · 264 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
476 picks · 479 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
363 picks · 984 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
327 picks · 374 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
301 picks · 146 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
299 picks · 493 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
299 picks · 509 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
292 picks · 616 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 42%
Hero pool strength59% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total56% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:25
1w Team 55%AVULUS 45%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 54:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenMunkushi~
51% · 124 games51% · 69 games
Faceless VoidSmiling Knight
Faceless Void
Timbersaw
TimbersawSSS
54% · 175 games44% · 223 games
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
Dawnbreaker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSquad1x
52% · 134 games46% · 169 games
Queen of PainLorenof
Queen of Pain
Snapfire
Snapfireswedenstrong
50% · 191 game56% · 133 games
EnchantressPuppey
Enchantress
Disruptor
Disruptorkasane
53% · 184 games44% · 214 games
Dark WillowThiolicor
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct34:27
1w Team 54%AVULUS 46%
The model gave 54% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 50:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaMunkushi~
58% · 162 games52% · 193 games
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
Nature's Prophet
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSquad1x
44% · 177 games46% · 292 games
PangolierLorenof
Pangolier
Abaddon
AbaddonSSS
49% · 188 games50% · 139 games
TimbersawSabeRLight-
Timbersaw
Chen
Chenkasane
57% · 158 games38% · 14 games
Spirit BreakerThiolicor
Spirit Breaker
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
47% · 151 game50% · 198 games
JakiroPuppey
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 56%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2