CCT Season 2 Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
eSpoiledwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 11 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 8 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 8 games
Warlock
flacko · 8 games
Pugnaoften banned
Fernans · 6 games
Tusk
Fernans · 6 games
Disruptoroften banned
flacko · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 5 games
eSpoiled
Snapfire
Wein · 28 games
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 24 games
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 23 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 20 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 19 games
Leshracsignature
Difference · 17 games
Marcioften banned
Wein · 17 games
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
506 picks · 264 bans
Disruptor
474 picks · 478 bans
Puck
363 picks · 981 bans
Pugna
327 picks · 374 bans
Earthshaker
299 picks · 493 bans
Warlock
299 picks · 146 bans
Mars
297 picks · 509 bans
Batrider
292 picks · 616 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 48%
Hero pool strength57% eSpoiled
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:37
Inner Circle 45%eSpoiled 55%
The model gave 55% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 1:03:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawfortniteMan
Terrorbladessnovv1
Faceless Voidyowaai
Ember SpiritDifference
Slardardualrazee
Naga Sirenasdekor_r
Phoenixflacko
Hoodwinkmrls
DisruptorFernans
Game 2prediction correct13:40
Inner Circle 43%eSpoiled 57%
The model gave 57% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 44:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenyowaai
LeshracDifference
Nature's Prophetdualrazee
Dragon Knightssnovv1
MarsNorma
Hoodwinkmrls
EnchantressFernans
Warlockasdekor_r
Snapfireflacko
Game 3prediction correct9:27
Inner Circle 44%eSpoiled 56%
The model gave 56% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusayowaai
Juggernautssnovv1
Sand Kingdualrazee
Dragon KnightDifference
MarsNorma
Hoodwinkmrls
Shadow DemonFernans
Warlockasdekor_r
Disruptorflacko
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 63%
Series resulteSpoiled 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3