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BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesisloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Kukuyswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 9 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 9 games
44%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Mac · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Jing · 9 games
56%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Raven · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 7 games
57%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Mac · 7 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Jing · 7 games
71%

Kukuys

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Gabbi · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemist
Natsumi · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Natsumi · 1 game
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Gabbi · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
499 picks · 260 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
470 picks · 471 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
359 picks · 973 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
327 picks · 373 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
298 picks · 146 bans
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
297 picks · 490 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
293 picks · 504 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
290 picks · 615 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total50% Kukuys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:14
Team Nemesis 50%Kukuys 50%
The model gave 50% on Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 44:22.
Game 2prediction correct17:36
Team Nemesis 50%Kukuys 50%
The model gave 50% on Kukuys — the game was taken by Kukuys in 31:31.
Game 3prediction correct4:24
Team Nemesis 50%Kukuys 50%
The model gave 50% on Kukuys — the game was taken by Kukuys in 29:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteKukuys · 50%
Series resultKukuys 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3