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BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 20 games
70%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 14 games
64%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Palos · 12 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 11 games
55%
Magnus
Magnus
Tino- · 11 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 11 games
55%

Vici Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ori · 4 games
25%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Dy · 4 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ori · 4 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Kaka · 4 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Dy · 3 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Kaka · 3 games
67%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Dy · 3 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
Yang · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
499 picks · 260 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
470 picks · 471 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
359 picks · 973 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
327 picks · 373 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
298 picks · 146 bans
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
297 picks · 490 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
293 picks · 504 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
290 picks · 615 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:20
Execration 42%Vici Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Execration in 45:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTino-
38% · 211 games46% · 90 games
Troll Warlordlou
Troll Warlord
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightPalos
53% · 257 games54% · 203 games
Sand KingXm
Sand King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainBob
45% · 133 games52% · 181 game
Centaur WarrunnerWs
Centaur Warrunner
Chen
Chencml
55% · 86 games52% · 262 games
MuertaPyw
Muerta
Snapfire
SnapfireShanks
52% · 196 games52% · 147 games
Naga SirenDy
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction correct27:41
Execration 41%Vici Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 49:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistPalos
56% · 99 games51% · 164 games
Templar Assassinlou
Templar Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainBob
49% · 210 games55% · 197 games
PuckXm
Puck
Axe
AxeTino-
46% · 127 games50% · 105 games
Sand KingWs
Sand King
Enchantress
Enchantresscml
48% · 191 game53% · 194 games
Shadow ShamanPyw
Shadow Shaman
Marci
MarciShanks
51% · 215 games41% · 182 games
PhoenixDy
Phoenix
Game 3prediction missed37:16
Execration 42%Vici Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Execration in 33:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPalos
48% · 207 games54% · 278 games
BeastmasterWs
Beastmaster
Leshrac
LeshracBob
52% · 128 games50% · 145 games
Shadow FiendXm
Shadow Fiend
Mars
MarsTino-
51% · 190 games41% · 64 games
Troll Warlordlou
Troll Warlord
Ringmaster
RingmasterShanks
51% · 121 game54% · 72 games
Nyx AssassinPyw
Nyx Assassin
Silencer
Silencercml
45% · 110 games53% · 197 games
DisruptorDy
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 62%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3