BLAST Slam V. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionBBBikini Bottomloss 1:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Runa Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bikini Bottom
Earthshakeroften banned
xsvampire · 4 games
Ringmaster
aik · 4 games
Slardaroften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 2 games
Disruptor
aik · 2 games
Doomoften banned
rincyq · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
rincyq · 2 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 2 games
Runa Team
Tiny
nicky`cool · 44 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 39 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 39 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 36 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 33 games
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 32 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
496 picks · 257 bans
Disruptor
470 picks · 466 bans
Puck
359 picks · 970 bans
Pugna
328 picks · 372 bans
Warlock
300 picks · 147 bans
Earthshaker
294 picks · 487 bans
Mars
294 picks · 498 bans
Batrider
291 picks · 618 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:36
Bikini Bottom 28%Runa Team 72%
The model gave 72% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenrincyq
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Pangolierряф^^
Earthshakernicky`cool
Death ProphetCorrupted
MarciAlberkaaa
Lichaik
ChenHduo
RingmasterImmersion
Snapfirequeezy
Game 2prediction missed31:11
Bikini Bottom 17%Runa Team 83%
The model gave 83% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Bikini Bottom in 31:10.
Game 3prediction correct25:43
Bikini Bottom 17%Runa Team 83%
The model gave 83% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 35:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 83%
Series resultRuna Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3