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FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Yandexloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Tusk
Tusksignature
GH · 35 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
SumaiL · 23 games
65%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
GH · 22 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 21 game
38%
Doom
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
45%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 17 games
53%

Team Yandex

Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 12 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TA2000 · 9 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
TA2000 · 8 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
prblms · 7 games
29%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Noticed · 7 games
86%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
prblms · 7 games
43%
Bane
Bane
prblms · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
490 picks · 254 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
469 picks · 460 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
357 picks · 964 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
325 picks · 373 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
300 picks · 147 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
293 picks · 491 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
292 picks · 483 bans
57%
Batrider
Batrider
289 picks · 623 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:14
Nigma Galaxy 64%Team Yandex 36%
The model gave 64% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 42:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanNo!ob
55% · 175 games46% · 247 games
PangolierNoticed
Pangolier
Puck
PuckSumaiL
57% · 421 game47% · 255 games
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
Dragon Knight
Juggernaut
JuggernautGhost
53% · 29 games45% · 205 games
TerrorbladeWatson
Terrorblade
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
48% · 249 games38% · 156 games
Dark Willowprblms
Dark Willow
Elder Titan
Elder TitanTobi
59% · 151 game50% · 162 games
DisruptorMalady
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct34:6
Nigma Galaxy 62%Team Yandex 38%
The model gave 62% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidGhost
little data47% · 266 games
TerrorbladeWatson
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
43% · 317 games54% · 137 games
LycanNoticed
Lycan
Invoker
InvokerSumaiL
44% · 146 games60% · 216 games
EarthshakerChira JUNIOR
Earthshaker
Tusk
TuskOmaR
51% · 253 games51% · 62 games
Grimstrokeprblms
Grimstroke
Pugna
PugnaTobi
49% · 195 games55% · 230 games
EnchantressMalady
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 73%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2