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BLAST Slam V. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 8 games
25%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 7 games
29%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 7 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 6 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Fernans · 6 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
flacko · 5 games
80%
Magnus
Magnus
Norma · 5 games
40%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 26 games
65%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 22 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
68%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 18 games
72%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 16 games
56%
Sven
Svensignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
SSS · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
486 picks · 250 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
470 picks · 457 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
358 picks · 959 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
324 picks · 371 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
302 picks · 148 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
292 picks · 479 bans
57%
Batrider
Batrider
290 picks · 625 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
289 picks · 486 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 60%
Hero pool strength64% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total80% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:32
Inner Circle 31%1w Team 69%
The model gave 69% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 53:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendyowaai
48% · 158 games57% · 260 games
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
Dragon Knight
Invoker
Invokerdualrazee
50% · 129 games55% · 157 games
TimbersawSSS
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsNorma
44% · 185 games55% · 215 games
Sand KingSquad1x
Sand King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFernans
44% · 180 games44% · 119 games
Windrangerswedenstrong
Windranger
Jakiro
Jakiroflacko
48% · 337 games53% · 238 games
Warlockkasane
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct8:36
Inner Circle 30%1w Team 70%
The model gave 70% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 32:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeyowaai
44% · 421 game54% · 179 games
AbaddonMunkushi~
Abaddon
Invoker
Invokerdualrazee
50% · 184 games56% · 315 games
BeastmasterSSS
Beastmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
47% · 229 games53% · 118 games
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFernans
48% · 190 games51% · 374 games
Tinyswedenstrong
Tiny
Elder Titan
Elder Titanflacko
43% · 128 games52% · 166 games
Disruptorkasane
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct10:33
Inner Circle 31%1w Team 69%
The model gave 69% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 36:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursayowaai
52% · 157 games54% · 176 games
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
Templar Assassin
Sniper
Sniperdualrazee
52% · 69 games44% · 184 games
DawnbreakerSSS
Dawnbreaker
Mars
MarsNorma
55% · 255 games50% · 262 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Warlock
Warlockflacko
50% · 244 games46% · 263 games
Snapfireswedenstrong
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFernans
45% · 262 games52% · 102 games
Banekasane
Bane
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 80%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3