OG vs Apex Genesis — prediction FUE 7 · Dota 2

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FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO2

result vs prediction

OGloss 1:1

series probability

59%41%

probability at match start · final 1:1

Apex Genesisloss 1:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Jakiro

Kidaro · 24 games

46%

Puckoften banned

Stojkov · 20 games

45%

Tiny

Stormstormer · 20 games

55%

Timbersawoften banned

MikSa` · 19 games

37%

Templar Assassinsignature

Shad · 18 games

61%

Monkey Kingoften banned

Stormstormer · 17 games

53%

Pangolieroften banned

MikSa` · 17 games

47%

Pugnasignature

Lelis · 17 games

65%

Apex Genesis

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Snapfire

486 picks · 250 bans

56%

Disruptor

468 picks · 457 bans

54%

Puck

356 picks · 959 bans

52%

Pugna

324 picks · 371 bans

52%

Warlock

302 picks · 148 bans

53%

Earthshaker

292 picks · 477 bans

57%

Batrider

290 picks · 625 bans

51%

Mars

288 picks · 485 bans

53%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)46% vs 29%

Hero pool strength51% OG

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total59% OG

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct28:11

OG 52%Apex Genesis 48%

The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 34:34.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

TimbersawMikSa`

47% · 100 games51% · 378 games

BeastmasterYamSun