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BLAST Slam V. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:1
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Passion UAwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 29 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 28 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 23 games
74%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 23 games
52%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 20 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 20 games
40%

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 34 games
68%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 22 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 21 game
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
kreker · 21 game
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 20 games
65%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
41%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
485 picks · 250 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
468 picks · 457 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
356 picks · 962 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
325 picks · 371 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
303 picks · 149 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
292 picks · 477 bans
57%
Batrider
Batrider
291 picks · 627 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
289 picks · 485 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:28
Virtus.pro 62%Passion UA 38%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Passion UA in 48:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonTimado
50% · 188 games49% · 214 games
TimbersawBatyuk
Timbersaw
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAbed
48% · 368 games57% · 345 games
BristlebackCrystallize
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDaxak
55% · 414 games48% · 367 games
Storm SpiritMoonlight
Storm Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireAntares
46% · 170 games49% · 191 game
RingmasterQBFY
Ringmaster
Disruptor
DisruptorFly
49% · 168 games49% · 191 game
Silencerkreker
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 74%
Series resultPassion UA 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1