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Streamers League #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Stray Teamloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ALOHADANCE Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Stray Team

Necrophos
Necrophossignature
Stray · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Vovapain · 6 games
67%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Stray · 5 games
40%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
balod9l · 4 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Vovapain · 4 games
25%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Goodoq · 4 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
DkFogas · 3 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Goodoq · 3 games
67%

ALOHADANCE Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
AfterLife · 3 games
33%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
спортик · 3 games
33%
Undying
Undying
Madnexus · 3 games
67%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
ALOHADANCE · 2 games
50%
Lich
Lich
Madnexus · 2 games
0%
Lion
Lion
izverq · 2 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
спортик · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
AfterLife · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
617 picks · 442 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
580 picks · 332 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
422 picks · 617 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
409 picks · 460 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
399 picks · 364 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
333 picks · 373 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 489 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
315 picks · 956 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% Stray Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Stray Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct50:16
Stray Team 56%ALOHADANCE Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Stray Team — the game was taken by Stray Team in 50:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
Spectrezvёzd
46% · 7 games57% · 64 games
Invokerспортик
Invoker
Viper
ViperStray
43% · 114 games55% · 93 games
Centaur WarrunnerAfterLife
Centaur Warrunner
Night Stalker
Night StalkerDkFogas
37% · 31 game46% · 31 game
Drow RangerALOHADANCE
Drow Ranger
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeVovapain
47% · 45 games53% · 105 games
BaneMadnexus
Bane
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGoodoq
50% · 181 game60% · 85 games
Lionizverq
Lion
Game 2prediction missed44:32
Stray Team 56%ALOHADANCE Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Stray Team — the game was taken by ALOHADANCE Team in 55:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerzvёzd
49% · 164 games52% · 88 games
Invokerспортик
Invoker
Pudge
PudgeDkFogas
48% · 83 games60% · 54 games
LunaALOHADANCE
Luna
Viper
ViperStray
44% · 172 games49% · 131 game
AxeAfterLife
Axe
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerGoodoq
51% · 86 games58% · 121 game
Shadow Demonizverq
Shadow Demon
Lich
LichVovapain
44% · 43 games45% · 154 games
JakiroMadnexus
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed31:35
Stray Team 56%ALOHADANCE Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Stray Team — the game was taken by ALOHADANCE Team in 35:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmotherzvёzd
51% · 28 games54% · 164 games
WindrangerALOHADANCE
Windranger
Viper
ViperStray
46% · 151 game53% · 91 game
Invokerспортик
Invoker
Slardar
SlardarDkFogas
50% · 238 games48% · 167 games
MarsAfterLife
Mars
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeVovapain
43% · 56 games45% · 44 games
UndyingMadnexus
Undying
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerGoodoq
50% · 64 games61% · 71 game
Lionizverq
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteStray Team · 64%
Series resultALOHADANCE Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3