FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Apex Genesisloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AVULUS
Jakiro
Fly · 31 game
Tiny
Mo13ei · 26 games
Shadow Shaman
dEsire · 25 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 21 game
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 18 games
Ringmaster
dEsire · 18 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 17 games
Svenoften banned
Smiling Knight · 16 games
Apex Genesis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
477 picks · 250 bans
Disruptor
466 picks · 455 bans
Puck
358 picks · 961 bans
Pugna
326 picks · 371 bans
Warlock
306 picks · 151 bans
Earthshaker
292 picks · 475 bans
Batrider
290 picks · 634 bans
Tusk
290 picks · 223 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:18
AVULUS 67%Apex Genesis 33%
The model gave 67% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 49:51.
Game 2prediction correct37:9
AVULUS 67%Apex Genesis 33%
The model gave 67% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 31:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 67%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2